India-US Trade Deal Effect: Check Nifty Target From Top Brokerages

The India-United States trade deal sealed last week will have a broadly positive impact on the country's growth and markets, according to brokerages. Bernstein expects market relief and sectoral benefits but remains neutral on equities. ICICI Securities expects zero tariffs on nearly half of India's US exports, reaffirming an optimistic CY26 Nifty outlook.

The average of analysts' consensus 12-month target for Nifty is placed at 29,752 points, indicating a 15% potential to the previous close, according to Bloomberg data.

Here are the key highlights from their reports:

Bernstein

• The US and India treaty appears fairly constructive and it looks like a positive setup.
• Looks like a mature handling of the trade agreement from the US and India—which has been missing for a year now.
• Market euphoria was fading away leading to skepticism over how beneficial the deal is to India.
• This announcement clears up much of that, and sets the markets for a relief.
• Believe the fine print released so far is broadly positive for markets, especially for auto components and shields pharma from a potential negative.
• The economic costs of switching to far-off crude will also be outweighed by tariff benefits.
• Various other products such as textiles, gems and jewelry, organic chemicals, etc., where India has high exports to the US, will now face 18% duty vs 50% earlier; So this is a positive.
• However, there are not many direct and large stocks to invest in to play this benefit.
• Remain Neutral on India with a 28,100 Nifty target.
• Near-term short-term rally argument is for Nifty moving until 26,500, closer to where we started the year.

ICICI Securities

• India agriculture and dairy sectors kept largely out of the interim trade agreement.
• Auto components, aircraft components, generic pharma to benefit.
• India to ramp up purchase of high-end products and energy from US.
• Aforementioned agreement is expected to be notified via an executive order over the next few days.
• Almost 50% of exports to US from India will face zero tariff as.
• This includes products such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, gems, diamonds, aircraft parts, select auto parts, chemicals and a wide variety of agricultural and food products amongst others.
• Maintain our CY26 estimate Nifty 50 target of 29,000.

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Avendus Spark

• With this deal, India becomes one of the most competitive emerging-market exporters to the US.
• Agreement is expected to provide duty-free access for a broad range of Indian agricultural and processed food exports.
• Industrial exports are also set to benefit materially.
• Collectively, these measures support both labour-intensive and high-value industrial sectors.
• The deal – expected to be signed by March – marks a major reset in India-US trade relations.
• It also eases pressure on India's capital account.
• Remain constructive on the CY26 outlook.
• See lagged effects of monetary and fiscal easing expected to drive a meaningful demand recovery.

Nomura

• Welcome clarification of the fine-print of the trade deal agreed upon between India and the US.
• It should quell some of the uncertainty building in markets after the initial cheer of the deal.
• India's ability to stick to its red lines, particularly on agriculture, means that political opposition to the deal should be muted.
• Additional information regarding the removal of tariffs on gems and diamonds, aircraft parts and carve-outs of the sectors impacted by the Section 232 tariffs is a positive development for India.
• Purchase commitment of $500 billion over five years - whether these commitments are met or delayed remains to be seen.
• Nevertheless, this remains an important metric to track going forward.

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