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ICICI Securities Report
Over the past five weeks, Indian rupee has held steady against the depreciating U.S. dollar, thereby enabling Indian rupee to give up all its gains on euro and virtually all its year-to-date gains against Korean won, Chinese yuan and British pound sterling – while foreign exchange reserves rebounded by $27.1 billion.
We expect these trends to persist through March 2023, as the seasonal improvement lowers the quarterly current account deficit to below 1% of gross domestic product in Q1 CY23.
The CAD will be fully funded by net foreign direct investment inflows, while fairer equity valuations should allow modest foreign institutional investor net inflows into Indian equities in Feb-March 2023.
We expect Indian rupee to end FY23 at 82.5/U.S. dollar, and foreign exchange reserves to rebound to $600 billion in March-23.
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