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IDFC AMC Report
We had written recently on the somewhat worrying inflation dynamics that have been evolving, particularly in the U.S. where the global supply dynamic is meeting an unprecedented demand stimulus.
Our concern is with respect to the extent of disequilibrium between actual data prints and the Fed's expectation and the current policy stance (still growing balance sheet and still at effective zero).
At least for the time being, the balance of evidence seems to be concretely shifting against ' Team Transitory'. Thus even as there is some mixed anecdotes lately on some supply chain decongestions, pricing pressures with companies (both prices received and prices paid indices in surveys are on a tear) and labor market tightness is all too evident.
Further, growth seems to be rebounding after a slowdown in the last quarter as is evident in both nowcast indices as well as in the skew of data surprises.
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