- Gulf crude imports to India rose to 1.52 mb/d in September from 1.03 mb/d in June
- Producers use ship-to-ship transfers near Sohar and Fujairah to bypass Strait of Hormuz risks
- Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait led the supply growth with increased shipments in September
Gulf crude flows to India are showing signs of recovery, with producers using ship-to-ship (STS) transfers off Oman to keep barrels moving despite the risks associated with navigating the Strait of Hormuz amid the war.
“We are seeing Gulf crude return to India,” said Natalia Katona, an Abu Dhabi-based commodity analyst. With the strait in effect closed and Bab al-Mandeb falling under Houthi control, Riyadh has been forced to find ways to export its oil. "Gulf producers are offering barrels through STS transfers near Sohar and Fujairah, with sellers absorbing the risks of crossing the strait," said Katona.
Data from commodity analytics firm Kpler shows that the United Arab Emirates remains India's second-largest crude supplier, with about nine million barrels arriving so far in September. Iraq is also staging a significant recovery: five tankers carrying five million barrels reached India in August, compared with six tankers carrying 7.8 million barrels in the first three weeks of September.
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Kuwait, which had disappeared from India's import mix during the peak conflict months before returning in August, has supplied about 5 million barrels so far this month.
Saudi cargoes also continued to arrive, totalling 7.5 million barrels in September. Although all of those cargoes were loaded before outage of the East-West pipeline, which helped circumvent the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – a global oil chokepoint.
The recovery, though nascent, follows a historic slump in Gulf supplies to India.
“Gulf supplies hit a decade low in June, but are now recovering,” according to Naveen Das, senior analyst at Kpler. Gulf crude arrivals fell to 1.03 million barrels per day (mb/d) in June 2026—the lowest monthly level in Kpler's series dating back to January 2017 and well below the 1.95 mb/d recorded during the April 2020 Covid pandemic.
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Gulf shipments remained depressed from March through August, averaging at 1.03-1.34 mb/d, below every month of the previous nine years. Against an average of 2.24 mb/d in 2025, that represented roughly 1.1 mb/d of displaced Gulf supply. It's share of India's crude imports fell to 20% in June from 46%.
Iraq was the biggest casualty. Its supplies to India fell from roughly 0.90 mb/d through 2025 to just 0.07 mb/d in June, Das said.
But the trend has since turned. Gulf arrivals recovered to 1.18 mb/d in August and reached 1.52 mb/d so far in September, according to Kpler data.
The additional supply has put downward pressure on global oil prices, with both brent and West Texas Intermediate futures falling below $100 a barrel on September 21. Brent futures sank over 4% to $99.29 per barrel, while WTI futures fell 5.1% to $95.15 a barrel.
For Indian refiners, the return of Gulf crude eases supply pressures after months of disruption to West Asian flows. But the trade remains costlier and more complex, with tanker availability, freight cost, port capacity and Hormuz risks still shaping shipments.
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