The outcome of the next general election, crude prices and the trade war are among the biggest factors that will decide the trajectory of Indian equities in 2019, according to BloombergQuint's poll of market participants.
Depending on how these pan out, the majority of 27 respondents polled are conservative in their predictions for the Nifty 50 Index.
Analysts have cited uncertainty about Prime Minister Narendra Modi winning a second term, more so after his Bharatiya Janata Party lost the key heartland states to the Congress, as a key risk for equities next year. Trump's trade war with China and crude prices, and as a result rupee, will remain concerns for the second straight year. These factors caused volatility for much of 2018, when Nifty 50 managed to end with marginal gains but the broader indices destroyed wealth.
Here's what market participants expect from 2019:
Nifty Target
Market participants expecting Nifty to break above 12,000 are in a minority.
Modi Back In Saddle
The majority of respondents expect Nifty to gain up to 10 percent and 14.3 percent predict it to jump even more.
BJP Returns With Allies
More than two-thirds of participants still expect Nifty to surge.
BJP Out
No differences here. More than 94 percent of the respondents expect the benchmark index to tumble.
Biggest Worries
The possibility of differences between the Reserve Bank of India and the government is the least of the worries for market participants.
Trump's Tantrum
U.S. President Donald's Trump's protectionist policy is a concern for nearly 43 percent of market participants.
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