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Systematix Report
According to Systematix, small finance bank's valuations have corrected meaningfully and are trading close to trough levels (at or below -1SD), suggesting limited downside from current levels.
Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (Buy) and Equitas Small Finance Bank (Buy) remains systematix' top picks.
Strong earnings growth expected:
Most SFBs in our coverage have already reported 20%+ YoY assets under management growth in their pre-earnings updates. The brokerage expects net interest income / PPOP / PAT growth of ~31% / 17% / 74% YoY, supported by strong loan growth and lower credit costs, while net interest margins should improve modestly on better recoveries and a favorable mix shift toward higher-yielding MFI segment.
For Jana Small Finance Bank, the brokerage's estimates remain materially below management's PAT guidance of Rs 140 to -160 crore, reflecting the bank's historical trend of under-delivery relative to guidance. That said, any improvement in execution could result in a positive surprise relative to our estimates.
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