Psephologist Yogendra Yadav drafted a probable three-case scenario for the upcoming Gujarat elections, which sees BJP, the traditional kingpin in the state, lose in all possibilities.
Yadav divided the Gujarat electorate into three sections: Rural with 98 seats, Semi-urban with 45 seats and Urban with 39 seats.
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His prediction states that while BJP virtually holds fort in the urban seats with over 25 seats in it's kitty, the same can't be said for rural and semi-urban seats.
There are three elections in Gujarat:
December 13, 2017
City (39 seats): BJP on a solid wicket, can't lose more than 10
Semi-Urban (45 seats): BJP on the edge of a cliff, holds 36, can lose half of these
Rural (98 seats): Steady downhill for BJP, trailed here in 2012, now faces a rout https://t.co/vynIjD4OTUIn fact, BJP failed to fare well in the rural seats in 2012, winning only 44 of the 98 seats, while Congress clinched 49 seats. Cut to 2017, according to CSDS polls – conducted in November – BJP could win 28 seats while Congress could clinch 66. Meanwhile, Yadav's prediction gives BJP a mere 20 seats, with Congress winning 74 seats.
As for the semi-urban seats, Yadav predicted that the saffron party would gain 18 of the 45 seats, should there be a 2 percent swing against the party since the CSDS poll. The CSDS poll had predicted a 26-seat win for the BJP, with the Congress winning 19 seats.
BJP had won 36 of the 45 semi-urban seats in 2012.
Yadav broadly categorised his predictions into three scenarios:
Scenario 1 is where BJP and Congress are poised for a photo finish, with both the parties garnering 43 percent each. In this scenario, the BJP wins 86 seats, and the Congress 92 seats, of the total 182 seats. Yadav pinned this as the most ‘possible' outcome.
Scenario 2 is where BJP gets 41 percent of the vote share, and Congress garners 45 percent. This ‘likely' scenario sees BJP win 65 seats and the Congress win 113 seats.
With regard to scenario 3, Yadav said it is a case that “cannot be ruled out.” While he did not specify what the vote share and seat-win in this case could be, he said that this scenario would prove to be an “even bigger defeat for BJP.”
Yadav's prediction comes after a series of pre-election tracker surveys were undertaken by India TV, Times Now-VMR, and ABP-CSDS respectively in their own capacities.
An earlier analysis of the three pre-poll surveys showed that while the BJP might secure a victory in the upcoming Gujarat assembly elections, the margin of victory would probably be smaller than expected.
The analysis had predicted a win for BJP with an average of 105-106 seats in its favour.
(Note: Yogendra Yadav shot to prominence as a politician with his outfit ‘Swaraj India.' His interest lies in political and social sciences. He has been a senior fellow with the CSDS since 2004.)
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