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There's about a 30% chance that U.S. President Donald Trump slaps tariffs on the roughly $300 billion of Chinese imports that aren't yet targeted, says Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
While Trump has signaled that the paperwork has started for such a process and Goldman expects a notice could come within a fortnight, implementation could take anywhere up to three months, analysts led by Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said in a note.
The time before then will likely see a deal being reached, they reckon.
"That said, while we believe the White House is not that likely to implement the next round of tariffs (30% probability), we believe the risk has risen somewhat now that this latest round of tariffs has at least technically taken effect," the analysts said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Enda Curran in Hong Kong at ecurran8@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Malcolm Scott at mscott23@bloomberg.net, Chris Bourke, Henry Hoenig
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