India's goods exports could face a hit of $8-10 billion if ongoing geopolitical tensions and logistics disruptions continue, according to exporters' associations, which say the conflict in West Asia is already affecting orders, shipping costs and cargo movement. Industry representatives said the impact could be visible in March shipments as well as the overall FY26 export numbers if current disruptions persist.
Exporters are reporting order cancellations from buyers in the Middle East, a key destination for several Indian goods, as uncertainty around trade routes and delivery timelines increases.
Shipping Costs Surge
Exporters said logistics costs have risen sharply, with shipping companies imposing additional surcharges ranging between $1,500 and $4,000 per shipment.
These charges are being levied as vessels reroute or face delays amid heightened security concerns and operational disruptions across critical maritime routes. Industry bodies have urged shipping lines to moderate these surcharges rather than passing on the entire cost burden to exporters.
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Exporters have also called for greater clarity and coordination to ensure the safe placement and movement of cargo, particularly in regions affected by shipping disruptions.
Operational Bottlenecks Emerge
Industry representatives highlighted delays in obtaining no-objection certificates for back-to-town containers, which has slowed cargo processing at ports. At the same time, shipping lines are reportedly imposing hefty detention charges, further increasing logistics costs for exporters.
Exporters have also raised concerns about penal charges being imposed by banks, along with difficulties in accessing interest subvention benefits of 2.75% under export credit schemes.
Industry associations said the matter has been taken up with the Reserve Bank of India, seeking clarity and relief for exporters dealing with disruptions in shipments and payments.
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