ICRA Projects Fourth Quarter GDP Growth At 6.9%

ICRA has projected India's GDP growth at 6.9% for the quarter ending March 31 and 6.3% for fiscal 2025, falling short of the National Statistics Office estimates from February.

The NSO had previously forecasted 6.5% GDP growth for fiscal 2025, with quarterly growth recorded at 6.5% in June, 5.6% in September, and 6.2% in December. To meet the 6.5% annual target, the March quarter would need a 7.6% growth rate.

The NSO is set to publish its fiscal 2025 provisional estimates and fourth quarter GDP data on May 31.

ICRA's analysis estimates fourth quarter fiscal 2025 GDP growth at 6.9%, up from 6.2% in third quarter of fiscal 2025, but still considerably below the NSO's implicit 7.6% estimate for the quarter.

Unless there are material revisions in the data for first quarter-third fiscal 2025, ICRA projects a sharp step-down in the full-year GDP expansion to 6.3% in fiscal 2025, from 9.2% in fiscal 2024.

ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said both private consumption and trends for investment activity were uneven in fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with the latter partly owing to tariff-related uncertainty.

Services sector exports continued to show double-digit growth, while merchandise exports contracted in year-on-year terms in fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, after expanding in December quarter.

(With inputs from PTI).