South Africa's recovery from its deepest economic contraction in almost three decades risks stalling due to the fallout from a fourth wave of coronavirus infections driven by the omicron variant.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict gross domestic product will expand 4.9% in 2021, compared with a previous estimate of 5.1%. Africa's most industrialized economy is now expected to grow by 2% next year and 2.1% in 2023.
The revisions comes after more than 90 countries imposed travel bans on South Africa ahead of its summer holiday season following its discovery of omicron and after output fell more than expected in the third quarter. Prior to the onset of the new strain, the government and central bank predicted the economy would grow by 5.1% and 5.2% respectively this year.
The evolution of the pandemic and on-going electricity supply constraints remain risks to the outlook. Progress on some long-awaited structural reforms that Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said the government is targeting by mid-February could bolster output from the new year.
©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
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