ONGC Profit May Slip In March Quarter, Crude Realisations To Rise

Oil and Natural Gas Corp.'s net profit in the fourth quarter may fall on a sequential basis, even as it reports flat revenue growth. Brokerages, however, expect crude realisations to be higher quarter-on-quarter.

Standalone net profit of the state-run oil company may fall 4% sequentially to Rs 9,158.08 crore in the quarter ended March 2024, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates as of May 17. The oil marketer's Ebitda is expected to rise 14.9% sequentially, with a margin expansion of 590 basis points.

• Revenue may rise 0.5% to Rs 34,956.53 crore

• Ebitda may rise 14.88% to Rs 17,043.05 crore

• Margins at 48.5% versus 42.6%

• Net profit may fall 4% to Rs 9,158.08 crore

Nomura expects modest sequential growth for Oil and Natural Gas Corp. in the fourth quarter. Ebitda may rise 3% sequentially to Rs 17,700 crore, the brokerage said.

Meanwhile, Elara Capital expects Ebitda of the upstream oil company to fall 5-6% sequentially due to lower oil and gas production and a lower administered price mechanism for gas, which fell 23% year-on-year.

Nomura expects Q4 margins to be at 50%, while Elara Capital expects margins to be at 48%.

Nomura expects the upstream company to have healthy growth in gas volumes; overall, oil volumes could remain steady.

The brokerage estimates crude oil volumes to remain steady on a sequential basis at 4.7 million tonne and overall gas sales volumes to rise 2% quarter-on-quarter to 4.1 billion cubic meters.

In terms of realisations, Nomura does expect higher oil realisations, while gas realisations will remain steady due to price-capped nomination fields. Net crude realisations post-payment of the special additional excise duty are expected to rise 4% quarter-on-quarter to $75 per barrel, according to Nomura.

Elara Capital expects crude realisations to rise 4% quarter-on-quarter to Rs 74 per barrel.