(As the NDA government completes two years in power, The Quint brings for its readers ‘Modi@2', a special series evaluating the performance of the current regime.)
As Narendra Modi enters his third year asprime minister, the BJP can boast of starting delivery on at least one of hiselection promises: a Congress-mukt Bharat. After the last round of assemblyelections, the Grand Old Party's national footprint has shrunk to its smallestever. In 2014, before the BJP began its bull run, the Congress had governmentsin 11 states. It is now down to 7; all of them, except Karnataka, are small andpolitically inconsequential.
On the otherhand, Amit Shah's vow when he became BJP president shortly after the 2014 LokSabha polls has turned out to be a jumla. He had boasted then that theBJP would paint the country, “from Kashmir to Kanyakumari'', in hues ofsaffron. Reality checks didn't take that long.
Humiliatingdefeats at the hands of two regional satraps in 2015 -- AAP's Arvind Kejriwal inDelhi and Nitish Kumar in Bihar -- and the resounding victories of two more chieftainsthis year, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu, have puncturedthe Shah balloon. A Congress-mukt Bharat is not necessarily a saffronisedBharat, as the BJP is realising much to its despair.
The Bulwark of RegionalParties
The ups anddowns of the past two years have given the Modi-Shah duo much food for thoughtabout the course of their politics and the direction for the BJP in the run-upto the 2019 general election. If Modi's first year in office saw them flyinghigh on triumphalism, his second year brought them down to earth with a bump.
Ahard look at the state elections that followed the heady Lok Sabha victoryrevealed that the so-called tectonic shift that was supposed to have happenedwith the formation of the first single-party majority government in threedecades was just a mirage.
Regional parties are still flourishing and have proved capable of holding their own against the Modi juggernaut. Although development is increasingly defining the political discourse, identity politics remains the underpinning of every election. The only visible change is that the Congress is no longer the main pole of Indian politics. In fact, it is dying a slow death.
Those who know Modi say he is nothing ifnot pragmatic. Having experimented and failed with muscular, personality-drivenpolitics to colour India saffron, he seems to have fallen back on a tried andtested formula: anti-Congressism. It was always the BJP's USP and in 2014 itgave wind to Modi's campaign. The Bihar defeat was a body blow but by shiftingthe focus back to the Congress, the BJP has managed to regain lost momentumwith a stunning victory in Assam and a breakthrough in Kerala. Needless to say,both came at the cost of the Congress.
TargetingCongress
The shift happenedsuddenly and dramatically. At the beginning of the winter session of Parliamentlast year, Modi was trying to woo Sonia Gandhi over tea to pass the long-pendingGST bill. By the end of the session, the BJP had toppled the Congressgovernment in Arunachal Pradesh and was gearing up to impose President's Ruleas a first step to installing another government supported by its own MLAs. Andit has not stopped firing at the Congress since.
It is difficult to pinpoint exactly what prompted Modi to change tack. But after a successful coup in Arunachal, the attack on the Congress has been relentless. Perhaps the most important signal of the BJP's intent to go after the Congress, particularly the Gandhi family, was the nomination of die-hard Sonia-baiter Subramanian Swamy to the Rajya Sabha.
Swamy has made no effort to hide that hismain agenda is to take down the Gandhis and he began his innings in Parliamentwith a bang by raking up the forgotten AgustaWestland helicopter scandal.
There is asection in the BJP that is uncomfortable with this strategy of using theCongress for daily target practice. They have not forgotten how the Janata Partyhelped bring Indira Gandhi back to power after her resounding post-Emergencydefeat by hounding her and sending her to jail.
Modiis shrewd enough to realise that he is walking a fine line. But he is unlikelyto hold back. The Congress is easy meat and as of today, seems to have nocoherent strategy to return the fire from the BJP.
The BJP's Political Agenda
- An anti-Congress electoral agenda has helped the BJP, as seen its victory in Assam and inroads made in Kerala.
- Regionalparties such as those in Bihar and West Bengal have managed to consolidate their respective vote shares.
- Therefore, the BJP is now determined to adhere to itsCongress-mukt Bharat agenda.
- Change inpolitical strategy evident with BJP nominating Sonia Gandhi baiter Subramanian Swamyto Rajya Sabha.
- Taking Congresshead-on makes sense with elections due in eight states between 2017 and 2018.
Realisingthe Congress-Mukt Dream
Also, theCongress is the BJP's main opponent in many states that go to polls in 2017 and2018. These include Goa, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan,Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. The crucial election in UP will pit the BJPagainst two powerful regional players in Mayawati and Mulayam Singh so thatbelongs in a different box. The Modi-Shah team has yet to come up with awinning strategy against state satraps.
With Congress versus BJP battles coming upin so many states, Modi's anti-Congress politics is bound to sharpen in thecoming months. Stories are already swirling about more revelations of skeletonsfrom the UPA's cupboard. Investigations are on against several senior Congressleaders and their family members. And the political attack on Rahul Gandhicontinues with rebel Congress leaders being encouraged to diss him at everyopportunity.
Unless the Congress wins at least oneelection by defeating the BJP, Modi's Congress-mukt Bharat promise looks likebecoming a reality, even if achche din are yet to come.
(The writer is a Delhi-based senior journalist)
Also read:
Modi@2 | Catalogue of Disappointments, Achhe Din Elude: Tharoor
Modi@2: Schemes in Place, Delivery Desperately Needs Improvement
Modi@2: Govt's Foreign Policy Successful but Plenty Left to Do
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