Online crypto prediction market, Polymarket, has seen hectic activity amid speculation about a possible US military strike on Iran. This week, bettors on the platform assigned a probability of over a 50% to a US military strike on Iran in the near term, according to a Benzinga report.
A new trader on the online gambling platform placed a bet of $40,000 that the US will strike Iran by Jan. 14. While a CoinDesk report put the broader market consensus at a 65% chance of a strike by month-end, and a 74% chance by June 30, the trader went against the grain, putting a substantial wager on an earlier date.
US President Donald Trump's repeated social media warnings against protest-hit Iran have led to speculations about a possible military strike, leading to the speculation.
Polymarket allows users trade yes-or-no contracts, betting on outcomes in sports, entertainment, politics and economic events. The development comes amid reports that the Pentagon is reportedly preparing potential military action against Iran, while Iran has closed its airspace to commercial flights.
The ongoing anti-government agitation in the Islamic nation began toward December-end and has reportedly led to the deaths of more than 2,000 protestors. Public anger is growing across Iran over inflation and economic hardship, with protesters demanding an end to the current regime led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
CoinDesk cited Polymarket Analytics to report that a trader using the handle "mutualdelta" deposited $40,000 into a Polymarket account and placed a single bet on the US strike. The market currently assigns only a 9% chance of the strike and the bet has lost over $20,000 so far. However, if a strike occurs before midnight Eastern Time, the bettor stands to win the full payout from the contract.
Notably, in early January, an anonymous Polymarket trader earned $4,10,000 by correctly predicting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's removal. The account, created last month, began with $96 in contracts that would pay off if the US invaded Venezuela by Jan. 31. The trader gradually built positions worth about $34,000 before the US operation on Jan. 3.
