The deployment of the US Navy's Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the Central Command zone has fuelled speculations over Iran's political trajectory, with renewed focus on the position of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei amid widespread unrest and growing international pressure.
The move coincides with a period of heightened unrest in Iran, where protests against Ayatollah Khamenei's rule have been met with a harsh security response and increasing indications of pressure on the regime. The proximity of US forces to Iranian waters has revived debate among analysts, activists and retired officers over whether Tehran's leadership is bracing for a worst-case outcome.
According to several media outlets monitoring Iran, along with open-source intelligence analysts, top military officials have advised the ageing supreme leader to remain inside a secure bunker in Lavizan, in north-eastern Tehran, amid fears of US airstrikes.
“Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has moved into a special underground shelter in Tehran after senior military and security officials assessed an increased risk of a potential US attack,” Iran International reported, citing two sources close to the government.
According to reports, the bunker sits within a fortified complex connected by tunnel systems designed to protect against aerial strikes. Comparable steps were reportedly taken during Israel's Operation Rising Lion in June last year, indicating that such measures have been used before.
With concerns about further escalation mounting, online discussion has increasingly turned to whether Khamenei has discreetly prepared a plan for succession.
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While Tehran has not released an official statement, prominent leaders such as Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Khamenei, former judiciary chief Sadeq Larijani, cleric Alireza Arafi, and Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, are being seen among the probable candidates to become the successor of Khamenei.
Reports indicate the Assembly of Experts may already have narrowed the field to three undisclosed candidates.
According to OSINTdefender, an open-source intelligence outlet, reports indicate that US officials see Iran's ruling establishment as increasingly fragile.
“President Donald J. Trump has received multiple intelligence reports indicating that the Iranian government's position is weakening, possibly being at its weakest point since the Shah was overthrown during the 1979 Islamic Revolution, according to several people familiar with the information who spoke to the New York Times,” it said in an X post.
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The New York Times has reported that the harsh response to protests in Iran points to anxiety within the leadership, rather than confidence.
The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln has moved into the region, accompanied by a group of destroyers, including the USS Frank E Petersen Jr, USS Spruance and USS Michael Murphy, marking a substantial increase in US naval strength close to Iran.
According to reports, Gulf nations urged restraint earlier this month, warning the Trump administration that military action against Iran could lead to a regional war.
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