- Goldman Sachs warns crude prices could hit $100 if Hormuz exports remain restricted weeks longer
- Current base case sees oil flows at 15% for five days then gradual recovery over a month
- Goldman raised Q2 2026 Brent forecast to $76 and WTI to $71 per barrel due to supply cuts
Global crude prices could surge to $100 per barrel if exports through the crucial Strait of Hormuz remain restricted for several more weeks, analysts at Goldman Sachs reportedly said in a note to clients on Wednesday.
The brokerage's base-case scenario assumes that oil flows will continue at roughly 15% of normal volumes for another five days, followed by a gradual recovery over the course of a month. Under this outlook, Goldman has raised its second-quarter 2026 average forecast for Brent crude by $10 to $76 per barrel, and for WTI by $9 to $71 per barrel.
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The bank said the projection factors in sharply lower oil flows through the Strait, leading to sizeable declines in OECD inventories and reduced Middle East production in March.
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However, Goldman cautioned that risks remain skewed to the upside.
“If Hormuz volumes were to remain flat for 5 additional weeks, Brent prices would likely reach $100, a level associated with larger demand destruction to prevent inventories from falling to critically low levels,” the bank said in its note.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, is one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, accounting for nearly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.
Analysts warned that a prolonged disruption or damage to oil infrastructure could trigger a sharper price spike. The last time Brent crude traded above the $100 mark was in 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
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Brent futures on Wednesday were trading near $82.57 a barrel, after settling at their highest level since January 2025 in the previous session. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed to $75.28, marking its strongest close since June. Both benchmarks have gained roughly 5% or more over the past two sessions.
While the near-term outlook points to upside risks, Goldman also highlighted the possibility of a price pullback if oil flows through Hormuz normalise faster than anticipated.
Looking further ahead, the bank trimmed its fourth-quarter 2026 forecasts to $66 for Brent and $62 for WTI, and projected 2027 averages of $70 for Brent and $66 for WTI.
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