- Goldman Sachs warns crude prices could hit $100 if Hormuz exports remain restricted weeks longer
- Current base case sees oil flows at 15% for five days then gradual recovery over a month
- Goldman raised Q2 2026 Brent forecast to $76 and WTI to $71 per barrel due to supply cuts
Global crude prices could surge to $100 per barrel if exports through the crucial Strait of Hormuz remain restricted for several more weeks, analysts at Goldman Sachs reportedly said in a note to clients on Wednesday.
The brokerage's base-case scenario assumes that oil flows will continue at roughly 15% of normal volumes for another five days, followed by a gradual recovery over the course of a month. Under this outlook, Goldman has raised its second-quarter 2026 average forecast for Brent crude by $10 to $76 per barrel, and for WTI by $9 to $71 per barrel.
The bank said the projection factors in sharply lower oil flows through the Strait, leading to sizeable declines in OECD inventories and reduced Middle East production in March.
However, Goldman cautioned that risks remain skewed to the upside.
“If Hormuz volumes were to remain flat for 5 additional weeks, Brent prices would likely reach $100, a level associated with larger demand destruction to prevent inventories from falling to critically low levels,” the bank said in its note.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, is one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, accounting for nearly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.
Analysts warned that a prolonged disruption or damage to oil infrastructure could trigger a sharper price spike. The last time Brent crude traded above the $100 mark was in 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
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Brent futures on Wednesday were trading near $82.57 a barrel, after settling at their highest level since January 2025 in the previous session. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed to $75.28, marking its strongest close since June. Both benchmarks have gained roughly 5% or more over the past two sessions.
While the near-term outlook points to upside risks, Goldman also highlighted the possibility of a price pullback if oil flows through Hormuz normalise faster than anticipated.
Looking further ahead, the bank trimmed its fourth-quarter 2026 forecasts to $66 for Brent and $62 for WTI, and projected 2027 averages of $70 for Brent and $66 for WTI.
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