China's birth rate fell to its lowest level since 1949, deepening the demographic struggle for Beijing even as authorities are intensifying efforts to push birth rates through a suite of measures ranging from cash subsidies to the introduction of a condom tax.
Government statistics reveal that China's population of 1.4 billion has continued to reduce, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline. The total population stood at 1.404 billion in 2025, representing a decrease of 3 million compared to the previous year. The number of newborns fell to 7.92 million in 2025, a drop of 1.62 million, or 17%, indicating that the slight increase observed in 2024 was merely a temporary fluctuation rather than a sustained trend, as per the Associated Press. Prior to that, births had declined for seven successive years through to 2023.
Also Read: China Population Shrinks For Third Year Even With More Babies Born
Why Is Birth Rate In China Declining?
Many families point to the prohibitive costs and immense pressure of raising children in a highly competitive environment as primary obstacles. These concerns have been exacerbated by an economic downturn that has left many households struggling to manage basic living expenses. Similar to several other Asian nations, China is grappling with a falling fertility rate. Although the government does not publish these figures regularly, the last recording a rate of 1.3 in 2020, independent experts estimate the current rate is approximately 1. Both figures fall significantly short of the 2.1 replacement rate required to maintain a stable population, reported AP.
Furthermore, the 2025 birth rate has been recorded as the lowest in history, standing at 5.63 births per 1,000 people. Following decades of the one-child restriction, Beijing raised the limit to two children in 2015 before further increasing it to three in 2021. Despite these revisions, officials have seen limited success. In July, the government announced cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan (£390) per child, yet such incentives are being paired with more controversial attempts to influence social behaviour.
China removed contraceptives, including condoms, from its value-added tax exemption list in 2025. As of Jan 1, these products are subject to a 13 % tax. Conversely, to encourage child-rearing, kindergartens, childcare facilities, and matchmaking services have been added to the tax-exemption list. China held the title of the world's most populous nation until 2023, when it was overtaken by India.
Also Read: China's New Condom Tax: Will It Boost The Country's Declining Fertility Rate?
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