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Systematix Research Report
Our optimism is underpinned by improving growth trajectory in Zydus Lifesciences Ltd.'s India branded formulations business and easing concerns around erosion pressures in gAsacol HD, given the visibility on launch pipeline, which could more than offset the pressures.
A well-established wellness business, a proven biosimilar portfolio, amongst the best research and development productivity in the industry, and investments in long-term initiatives (new chemical entity pipeline and vaccine business in place) should drive medium to long-term growth.
We estimate sales, Ebitda and adjusted profit after tax of 6.8%, 8.9% and 8.3% compound annual growth rate, respectively, over FY22-FY25E.
Earnings drag from an extended higher-than-expected price erosion in the U.S. market is a key downside risk. Key upside risks stem from improvement in pricing situation in the U.S., successful execution of biosimilar portfolio in emerging markets and approvals for complex generics.
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