UltraTech Cement is likely to lead with 17.0% volume growth, driven by incremental contribution from inorganic additions. ACC and The Ramco Cements are expected to post volume growth of 7.3% and 5.0%, respectively, while Shree Cement is likely to witness a modest volume decline of 2.3% YoY.
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DRChoksey Report
We maintain a constructive stance on the Indian cement sector, supported by healthy demand and improvement in profitability outlook. Key structural tailwinds include a revival in residential housing, strengthening rural demand, accelerating urban infrastructure development, and consistent traction in commercial real estate led by retail and office segments. Furthermore, continued government-led capex augurs well for sustained volume growth across regions.
The pricing environment remains favorable, with Q1 FY26E witnessing a sharp sequential price reset, especially in the southern markets. While the early arrival of the monsoon may pose temporary volume pressure in H1 FY26E, we expect FY26E to reflect steady demand recovery, price stability, and margin expansion.
UltraTech Cement and ACC remains our top pick, driven by their ongoing capacity expansions, cost optimization measures, and balance sheet strength, which augurs well for the investors to play on the cyclical upturn.
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