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Centrum Broking Report
SSY22 is expected to be a year of records on all counts – production (36 million metric tonne), exports (~10 mmt) and diversion to ethanol (3.4 mmt).
We are expected to end the season with inventories of 6-7 mmt (second lowest in last decade) ~ three months of domestic consumption. For Q1 FY23, volumes are expected to be flattish for our coverage universe (Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd. and Triveni Engineering and Industries Ltd.) given the quota allotted - flattish sugar production for Uttar Pradesh.
On realisations front, sugar prices are expected to be higher on YoY basis by ~5% to Rs 35,000/tonne but flattish on QoQ basis.
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