OMCs' Q4 FY25 performance will likely be hit by weaker marketing margins and under-recovery in LPG. During the quarter, SG GRMs declined by $1.7/bbl QoQ. Marketing margins have slipped Rs 3.5/Rs 2.5 per litre QoQ in petrol/diesel to Rs 8.5/Rs 5.5 per litre, driving weakness in earnings.
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ICICI Securities Report
Q4 FY25 results for oil and gas companies under our coverage (excluding Gulf Oil Lubricants) are likely to show a weaker trend YoY/QoQ. We expect Ebitda/PAT to decline 4%/19% YoY and 2%/5% QoQ. YoY decline in operational performance is driven by oil marketing companies, city gas distributions and gas utilities sub-segments. In contrast, CGDs' Ebitda is expected to improve QoQ due to a partial restoration of APM cut to the CNG segment, which supports margins for the quarter.
Reliance's YoY performance remains strong, with likely flattish QoQ performance alongside some growth in JIO and steady OTC, which may be offset by seasonal weakness in retail segment. OMCs' profitability is impacted YoY/QoQ due to fall in marketing margins along with no respite in LPG losses. However, some improvement in OMCs' GRMs is seen in Q4 FY25 due to lower inventory loss versus Q3 FY25.
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