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Prabhudas Lilladher Report
Indian oil and gas sector's operating profit is expected to decline by 5.5% QoQ to Rs 1,085 billion given oil marketing companies' weak marketing margins and flat city gas distribution performance.
Upstream companies like Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. and Oil India Ltd. are expected to maintain production volumes and net crude realisation of ~$75/barrel of oil post windfall tax.
Similarly, gas realisation to remain unchanged QoQ at $6.5/metric million British thermal unit.
Indraprastha Gas Ltd./Mahanagar Gas Ltd./Gujarat Gas Ltd. earnings to remain flat with muted volumes and no significant price hikes/cuts except Gujarat Gas.
We expect Reliance Industries Ltd.'s oil-to-chemical segment to report higher operating profits with higher refining margins, partly off-setted by weak petchem spreads.
We build in steady telecom performance (+3.4%QoQ revenue growth) as we build in 1.9% QoQ average revenue per unit growth while retail revenue growth will be steady.
ONGC, GAIL India Ltd., Gujarat State Petronet Ltd. and Gujarat Gas remain our top picks.
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