Motilal Oswal expect Infosys and TCS to report a revenue decline of 1.0% and 0.5% QoQ cc, respectively, whereas HCLTech is anticipated to clock a 0.6% decline in Q4 FY25, driven by tapering of deal ramp-ups in telecom and seasonal weakness in the P&P segment. Meanwhile, Tech Mahindra is likely to post a 0.8% QoQ revenue decline and Wipro may report flat revenue QoQ. LTIMindtree could deliver 0.2% QoQ cc growth despite productivity pass-back in a key account spilling into Q4.
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Motilal Oswal Report
As we argued in our previous report, the discretionary spending recovery that we saw picking up in H1 FY25 has been stuck in the second gear; and clients are likely to be in wait-and-watch mode as they take stock of the trade war, a slower Fed rate cut cycle, and other macro-economic risks.
The net result of this will be a stop-start recovery in discretionary spending, pegging FY26E revenue growth for most large-caps in the range of 2-5% in constant currency.
There are three key questions that we would like to address:
Is there an upside risk to FY26 growth estimates?
Is feeble large-cap growth already in the price? and
Is further de-rating possible if the trade war escalates and US/Europe macro worsens?
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