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ICICI Securities Report
Companies under our coverage may see 6% YoY drop in Ebitda during Q2 FY22E as they may not be able to pass-on sharp costs increases in a seasonally weak monsoon quarter.
Volumes are expected to grow 5% YoY; while average Ebitda/tonne may decline 10% YoY (Rs 130/tonne) to Rs 1,165/tonne.
Realisation increase of ~3.0% YoY (Rs 130/tonne) may fall short of 7% YoY (Rs 260/tonne) costs increases.
On a QoQ basis, realisations may fall 2.5%; while cost/tonne may increase 3% QoQ resulting in 17% QoQ fall in Ebitda/tonne.
While we see minimal risk of earnings downgrades as yet given muted consensus expectations for rest of FY22; upgrades may see temporary halt.
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