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ICICI Securities Report
Q2 FY22 will be characterised by an uptick in disbursements and collections with recovery in business activities.
Loan portfolio has witnessed gradual accretion all through Q2 FY22 with signs of improvement in pockets.
On a low base, banks have reported 4-6% QoQ loan growth and YoY growth momentum too has gained traction.
With collections/recoveries improving month-on-month, we expect forward flows into delinquency buckets to be restricted.
Unwinding of stress and upgrades into standard bucket will be higher for non bankings compared to banks.
Despite gradual moderation from Q1 FY22 base, stress pool (including stage-II and restructuring) will still be elevated.
With respect to corporate credit, recovery from Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Ltd, and stress recognition for SREI will keep trend volatile across banks.
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