UltraTech Cement's capacity is expected to increase from 171.2 million tonnes per annum currently, to 188 mtpa/200 mtpa/215 mtpa by FY25E/FY26E/FY27E capacity (including 14.45 mtpa India Cements/10.75 mtpa Kesoram) which will support future growth.
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Dolat Capital Report
UltraTech Cement Ltd.'s Q3 FY25 revenue / volume / realisation /tonne /Ebitda/tonne came in line, however Ebitda and adjusted profit after tax were above our estimates.
We expect a revenue/Ebitda/APAT CAGR of 12.1%/19.6%/22.4% over FY24-27E led by 9.9%/20.5%/9.3% volume growth and -4.7%/ 1.5%/0.7% realization growth in FY25E/FY26E/FY27E.
We have broadly maintained Ebitda estimates for FY25E/FY26E, however increase Ebitda estimate by 5.1% for FY27E as India Cements will turn profitable. Maintain ‘Accumulate' rating with revised target price of 11,947 on 15.5 times consolidated FY27E EV/Ebitda + 50% of FY27E capitalm work-in-progress plus Star Cement stake at 1x P/BV.
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