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ICICI Securities Report
Q3 FY26 was a weak quarter for Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd. owing to a cyber incident-led production shutdown and lower dispatches at JLR. Nevertheless, JLR's Ebitdam was ahead of ICICI Securities' estimate.
Domestic PV margin also improved sequentially, in line with estimate. While variable marketing expenses will likely remain elevated in the near term owing to a challenging demand environment, the brokerage believes the worst is largely behind for JLR. Production ramp-up, low channel inventory and multiple new launches should support near-to-medium growth. Its domestic PV business continues to see strong growth post the GST cut and recent launches receiving good customer response.
ICICI Securitis upgrades the stock from Hold, to Add, with an SoTP-based revised target price of Rs 410 (earlier Rs 385).
Risks
- Weaker-than-expected demand for JLR owing to geopolitical uncertainty.
- Weaker-than-expected response to new product launches.
- Moderation, weakness in margin performance due to demand weakness (hence, higher VME)/ inflationary pressure/volatility in forex.
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