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Good morning and welcome to this live coverage of RBI MPC meeting.
The Reserve Bank of India's six-member Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, will decide on the repo rate today morning. It began its bi-monthly meeting on Feb. 4.
Most economists expect the MPC to keep the repo rate unchanged. The committee is also likely to retain a neutral policy stance. In its December policy, the MPC cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%. This took the total rate cuts in 2025 to 125 basis points. After these sharp reductions, experts believe the RBI may pause further cuts for now.
Growth conditions continue to support a pause, economists said, even as momentum across sectors remains uneven. In its December policy, the RBI projected real GDP growth of 7.3% for FY26, slightly lower than earlier expectations for the second half of the year, while maintaining that domestic demand remains the key growth driver. For the second half of FY26, the central bank trimmed its growth outlook marginally from the October policy, citing global trade uncertainty and external headwinds.
India's economy is estimated to have grown 7.4% in FY26, with official projections pointing to growth of 6.8%–7.2% in FY27, supported primarily by domestic demand, according to the latest Economic Survey. Consumption and investment have posted steady gains so far this fiscal, cushioning activity amid global uncertainty.
The Nifty Bank index opened 0.1% lower. Here are the top gainers and losers on the index:
Indian stock market benchmarks opened lower ahead of RBI MPC decision and tracking Asian cues.
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The rupee is expected to depreciate 2% toward a year-end target of 92 against the US dollar, in contrast to the markets' more bearish estimates of 3-4% decline toward 93-94, according to analysts at multinational investment bank UBS.
The local currency saw a relief bounce following the announcement of the US-India trade deal earlier this week. While the rupee should stay supported in the short term, weak balance-of-payment dynamics point toward a managed pace of depreciation, analysts said in a note.
The yield on the 10-year government bond opened flat at 6.7% ahead of the RBI MPC decision.
The rupee opened 9 paise stronger at 90.27 against the US dollar, ahead of the RBI MPC decision.
The MPC meeting, which began on Wednesday, was days after the Union Budget and after India signed a trade agreement with the United States on Monday, under which Washington reduced tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 25%, with certain products set to face zero tariffs. Economists say the deal could help stabilise capital flows and ease pressure on the rupee, reducing one of the external risks flagged by policymakers in recent months.
Economists do not expect major changes in growth or inflation forecasts. In December, the RBI raised its GDP growth projection for FY26 by 50 basis points to 7.3%. This was higher than its earlier estimate of 6.8%. The government's first advance estimates place real GDP growth at 7.4% for FY26.
With inflation within comfort range, the RBI had lowered its consumer price index (CPI) projection for 2025–26 to 2% from 2.6%. If the RBI keeps rates unchanged, loan and deposit rates are likely to stay stable. Interest rates linked to the external benchmark lending rate will also remain the same. Borrowers are unlikely to see immediate changes in their loan EMI restructure.
Viewers can watch the announcement live on the RBI's social media handles. The RBI Governor's press briefing can also be watched live on NDTV Profit. Audiences can follow the updates in real time and track key highlights on YouTube and other social media channels of the NDTV Network. Viewers can visit RBI's YouTube channel to watch the press conference at noon today.
The RBI MPC's three-day meeting to review the current monetary policy began on Wednesday, Feb. 4. The RBI Governor is set to announce the policy decision at 10 a.m. today. The Governor's press briefing will follow at noon.
The RBI is expected to keep its policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% at its February monetary policy decision on Friday, as economists say inflation is set to firm from recent lows even as growth remains resilient and the transmission of earlier rate cuts continues to lag.
With inflation expected to firm but remain within the tolerance band, growth holding up and the effects of earlier easing still playing out, economists widely expect the RBI to maintain a wait-and-watch stance at its February meeting, keeping future moves contingent on incoming data. Thirty-four of 39 economists tracked by Bloomberg expect the Monetary Policy Committee to leave rates unchanged, while the remaining five forecast a 25-basis-point cut, according to the latest survey.
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