India has chances to win business from the US in long-term, but will most likely to lose opportunities in the short-term because of uncertain developments in trade policies, said Nitin Bhasin, head of institutional equities at Ambit Pvt. Indian businesses are building capacities which will help them fetch deals from the world's largest economy in next three-to-four years.
Earlier today, US President Donald Trump Trump announced 25% levy on car imports to the country. He has already committed to reciprocal tariffs on trade partners starting April 2. The country has already imposed tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico. In other recent developments, the US is getting closer to finalising tariffs on copper imports.
In this backdrop, Bhasin advised investors to stay away from India for near term as some sectors of the markets may see downside moves. There could be some announcements on the tariff front which can impact certain sectors like steel, textiles, he said.
Apart from global factors, Bhasin pointed that slowing earning growth of India Inc. is also impacting investors' sentiment for Indian stocks. In the last three to four years, either earnings increased or met expectations. In financial year 2025, market participants have seen closer to 4.5% earnings estimate cut at the Nifty 50 level in first three quarters. Earnings cut are heading towards 7%. In FY26, earnings growth to rise to 14%, he said.
Bhasin believes that the theme for markets in calendar year 2025 is moderation. At the index level, investors may incur losses.
Nevertheless, certain stocks may deliver good returns even in this uncertain times. Financial stocks are one of them as it has delivered more returns than Nifty 50 during correction resulting more flows into this space. Ambit is equal-weight on IT space after sharp correction, he said.
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