Gold's sharp selloff has pushed the metal into bear market territory, but several market watchers continue to hold on to ambitious long-term targets, arguing that the recent decline reflects short-term pressures rather than a shift in fundamentals.
Spot gold prices fell as much as 2% on Tuesday before trimming losses to trade about 1.5% lower at $4,335.97 an ounce. Futures also declined about 2% to $4,317.80, while silver extended its losses. The slide leaves bullion down roughly 21% from its late-January peak of $5,594.82.
Analysts say the pullback has been driven largely by a stronger US dollar and easing geopolitical concerns after US President Donald Trump signalled a temporary pause in planned strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure. A firmer dollar typically weighs on gold by making it more expensive for international buyers, prompting profit-taking.
Even so, strategists remain broadly constructive on gold's outlook. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, told CNBC that he continues to expect prices to reach $10,000 by the end of the decade, even as he trimmed his near-term forecast. “We are sticking with $10,000 by the end of the decade,” Yardeni said, lowering his year-end projection to $5,000 per ounce from $6,000.
Justin Lin, investment strategist at Global X ETFs, described the recent selloff as a “compelling entry point for investors,” according to CNBC. He attributed the decline to a mix of higher interest rate sensitivity, portfolio rebalancing and reduced geopolitical risk perception.
Importantly, Lin noted that his bullish stance is not dependent solely on conflict-driven demand. Instead, it is supported by structural factors such as sustained central bank buying, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and steady inflows into gold-backed ETFs, particularly from Asian investors.
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Standard Chartered echoed a similar view. Rajat Bhattacharya, the bank's Senior Investment Strategist, told the news channel that the longer-term outlook remains supported by strong emerging market central bank demand and diversification trends. The bank expects gold to rebound toward $5,375 in the coming months, with support seen around $4,100.
A potential weakening of the US dollar, especially if the Federal Reserve moves toward rate cuts, could provide the next major boost to gold prices, analysts said.
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