Axis Securities maintains a positive outlook on the Indian cement sector from a medium to long-term persceptive. Although near-term earnings may remain impacted by elevated fuel costs, the structural demand outlook continues to strengthen. The recent corrections in large-cap and select mid-cap cement companies have improved valuation comfort and provide attractive opportunities for long-term, believes the brokerage.
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Axis Securities Report
Domestic brokerage firm Axis Securities expects the Q2 FY27 earnings season to reflect healthy cement demand, supported by sustained government infra spending, resilient rural housing demand and continued public capex execution, but also flags that elevated fuel and input costs are likely to keep profitability under pressure, making sustainability of recent cement price hikes critical for margin recovery.
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Despite near-term earnings headwinds, the sector's medium-to-long term outlook remains positive, underpinned by strong structural demand, industry consolidation, and ongoing investments in cost-efficient operations.
For companies under the brokerage coverage, volume/revenue are expected to grow by 10%/8% while EBITDA/PAT are expected to contract by ~4%/35% YoY as higher costs impact profitability growth.
On a sequential basis, performance is expected to be lower as volume/revenue/EBITDA/PAT are expected to de-grow by ~8%/9%/27%/42%, owing to an increase in fuel and logistics costs and negative operating leverage.
Current stock price corrections in large and mid-cap cement names offer an attractive medium-term entry, believes Axis Securities, hence companies with green energy and domestic coal and waste heat recovery system investments will outperform in FY27-28. Hence UltraTech Cement and JK Cement are the brokerage's top positive result play in the sector.
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