Treasuries investors whipsawed by President Donald Trump's trade and fiscal policies will this week glimpse the impact on the Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy.
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are set to keep their benchmark steady at the June 17-18 meeting, traders will scrutinize economic and interest-rate projections for insight into how policymakers may respond to the uncertainty.
Markets ended Friday pricing in a roughly 80% chance the Fed next lowers rates in September, with less than two quarter-point cuts fully priced in by year-end. A rally in Treasuries last week was tempered Friday as escalating geopolitical tensions led to a surgein oil prices.
What To Watch
Economic data:
June 16: Empire manufacturing; import and export price index
June 17: Retail sales; import and export prices; NY Fed services business activity; industrial production; capacity utilization; business inventories; Manufacturing (SIC) production; NAHB housing market index
June 18: MBA mortgage applications; Housing starts; building permits; initial jobless claims; TIC flows
June 20: Philadelphia Fed business outlook; leading index
Fed calendar:
June 18: FOMC rate decision
Auction calendar:
June 16: 13-, 26-week bills; re-opening of 20-year bonds
June 17: 6-week bills; re-opening of 5-year TIPS
June 18: 4-, 8-, 17-week bills
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