The Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) appears set to retain power in West Bengal, with an opinion poll projecting a decisive majority in the 294-member Assembly.
According to Vote Tracker by VoteVibe, the TMC is likely to win between 184 and 194 seats, well above the halfway mark of 148.
On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to improve its 2021 performance and is projected to secure 98–108 seats, but failing to oust the incumbent government.
Other parties, including the Indian National Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Front, are expected to remain marginal players, with just 1-3 seats combined.
Polling in West Bengal will be conducted in two phases on April 23 and April 29, with counting scheduled for May 4.
The survey indicates that the TMC may win 41.9% of the vote, while the BJP is projected to secure 34.9%, reflecting patterns observed in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.The Congress-Left alliance trails significantly, accounting for just 7.7% of the vote share.
Across communities, the TMC retains strong support among Muslim voters at 57.6%, while the BJP holds an edge among Scheduled Tribes with 51%. Scheduled Caste and Dalit voters, including the influential Matua community, remain split, with 43% backing the BJP and 39.5% supporting the TMC, according to the opinion poll.
The survey suggests that in the chief ministerial race, Mamata Banerjee remains the clear frontrunner, preferred by 48.5% of respondents.
BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari follows at 33.4%, while Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury and Mohammed Salim lag behind with single-digit support.
Women voters appear slightly more favorable toward Mamata Banerjee than men, highlighting her appeal across both genders.
Her strongest support base remains the Muslim community, where 65.5% back her leadership. In contrast, Scheduled Tribes and upper-caste Hindus show a preference for Adhikari.
Unemployment is likely to remain the dominant electoral issue, cited by 37.2% of respondents. The concerns around law and order and women's safety rank next at 15.9%, reflecting the continued impact of the RG Kar Medical College and Hospital incident. The rising prices (10.5%) and corruption (10.3%) also emerge as key concerns.
The participation of suspended TMC MLA Humayun Kabir is viewed as a possible game-changer, with roughly 41% of respondents suggesting it could weaken the TMC's support among Muslim voters.However, 24.6% perceive him as aligned with the BJP, while only a small fraction view him as backed by the TMC.
The public perception of the incumbent government appears divided. While 43.3% of respondents rate TMC's performance as “good” or “very good,” nearly 38.9% describe it as “poor” or “very poor,” indicating underlying dissatisfaction despite the TMC's projected lead.
Although BJP is projected to improve its performance, however, as per survey, some structural challenges had emerged for the party in the state. Internal factionalism tops the list, cited by 19.9% of respondents, followed by the absence of a strong chief ministerial face (17.2%).
The perception of the party as an “outsider” with limited cultural connect (12.5%), along with weak organisational strength (10.1%) and ineffective messaging (12.3%), further undermines its prospects.
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