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Monetary Policy Updates: MPC Keeps Rates Unchanged; RBI To Hold OMOs In State Development Loans

Monetary Policy Updates: MPC Keeps Rates Unchanged; RBI To Hold OMOs In State Development Loans
Shaktikanta Das, governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), speaks during an interview at the central bank in Mumbai. (Photographer: Kanishka Sonthalia/Bloomberg)
5 years ago
Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das is set to announce the Monetary Policy Committee's decision taken in a bi-monthly meeting at a time the country is struggling not just to control supply-side inflation, but also low growth. The governor will announce the decision over a video conference via social media.

Suvodeep Rakshit, Senior Economist, Kotak Institutional Equities

  • GDP and inflation forecasts welcome, in-line with market expectations
  • No interest rate cut coming in December
  • Growth, demand conditions will indicate if rate cut necessary in February
  • Whether policy rate should be lowered in February, or if fiscal policy should be driving force remains to be seen

India to be among very few countries to ensure 24x7 large value payment systems, says Governor Das.

In order to impart liquidity to State Development Loans and thereby facility efficient pricing, it has been decided to conduct open market operations in SDLs as a special case during the current financial year. This would improve improve secondary market activity and rationalise SDLs over central government securities of comparable maturities.
Shaktikanta Das, Governor, RBI

Consumer Price Index inflation will remain elevated in the September print and ease gradually in Q3 and Q3, Das said.

  • Supply disruptions and associated margins and mark-ups are major factors driving inflation.
  • As supply chains are restored, these wedges should dissipate.

  • Announcing an on-tap TLTRO with tenors of upto three years with total amount of Rs 1 lakh crore at a floating rate linked to repo rate.
  • Amount and period to be enhanced after review.
  • Liquidity availed under this scheme can be used to provide bank loans toward this sector.
  • In order to provide certainty to banks, RBI to extend dispensation on enhanced limits of SLR securities under HTM category to March 31, 2022.

The RBI stands ready to conduct market operations as required, through a variety of instruments to assuage these pressures (of excess supply of papers), dis-spell any liquidity in financial markets and maintain orderly market conditions.
Shaktikanta Das, Governor, RBI

FY21 real GDP expected to contract by 9.5%, with risks tilted to the downside, the RBI governor said.

  • Improvement in agri and allied activities would boost revival
  • Private investment and exports are likely to be subdued
  • If the current momentum of upturn remains strong, we can expect a strong rebound in growth

  • Investment has remained in retrenchment while consumption and exports have started to improve.
  • Financial conditions continue to remain benign.
  • Deep contractions of Q1 FY21 are behind us
  • Barring an incidence of a second wave, India is likely to shrug off impact of the virus as move towards its pre-Covid growth trajectory.
  • Migrant labour is starting to return to urban areas, factories are restarting operations
  • It is visible in energy consumption and movement of population
  • Mood of nation has changed to confidence and hope
  • Projections indicate that inflation will ease closer to target by Q4FY21
  • GDP growth may break out of contraction and change to positive by Q4

Monetary Policy Highlights: MPC Keeps Rates Unchanged; Forecasts 9.5% GDP Drop In FY21

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