(Bloomberg) -- In the past decade, residual seasonality has accounted for significant disparities between economists' estimates for U.S. gross domestic product in the first quarter and the actual data, according to Bloomberg Economics, though economists have become more aware of the issue in recent years, resulting in less-aggressive forecasts for the initial print. Given that in each of the past three years, the lackluster first-quarter pace was followed by a strong rebound, BE says Fed officials will likely prefer to see GDP data for the first half of the year, rather than just the quirky first quarter, before they are ready to make their next policy move.
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