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The poll of exit polls suggests that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set to retain power in Bihar, whereas the Opposition bloc of Mahagathbandhan is seen as a distant second.
The NDA, co-led by the BJP and JD(U), is poised to win more than 145 seats, according to an aggregate of nine exit polls released on Tuesday. The survey outcome was released shortly after the conclusion of the second and final phase of the elections.
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TIF Research Bihar Exit Polls 2025 (Total seats: 243 | Majority Mark: 122)
NDA: 145-163
MGB: 76-95
JSP: 0
Others: 3-6
(Health Warning: Exit polls are not always accurate)
"Caste is the clincher," says Pradeep Gupta of the well-known polling agency Axis My India. The agency will release its Bihar exit polls 2025 tomorrow.
"Whoever gets the edge among Dalits will win," he said.
P-Marq Bihar Exit Polls 2025 (Total seats: 243 | Majority Mark: 122)
NDA: 142-162
MGB: 80-98
JSP: 1-4
Others: 0-3
(Health Warning: Exit polls are not always accurate)
Chanakya Strategies Bihar Exit Polls 2025 (Total seats: 243 | Majority Mark: 122)
NDA: 130-138
MGB: 100-108
JSP: 0
Others: 3-5
(Health Warning: Exit polls are not always accurate)
The Mahagathbandhan does not have the "stamina" to cross 125 seats and the NDA's starting point is 125, says political analyst Amitabh Tiwari.
People's Insight Bihar Exit Polls 2025 (Total seats: 243 | Majority Mark: 122)
NDA: 133-148
MGB: 87-102
JSP: 0-2
Others: 3-6
(Health Warning: Exit polls are not always accurate)
Dainik Bhaskar Bihar Exit Polls 2025 (Total seats: 243 | Majority Mark: 122)
NDA: 145-160
MGB: 73-91
JSP: 0
Others: 5-10
(Health Warning: Exit polls are not always accurate)
"Not a surprise," says veteran journalist Vir Sanghvi, on initial trends projecting NDA sweep in Bihar.
He said Congress has internally resigned that Tejashwi Yadav's appeal was limited and BJP was too powerful.
Matrize Bihar Exit Polls 2025 (Total seats: 243 | Majority Mark: 122)
NDA: 147-167
MGB: 70-90
JSP: 0-2
Others: 2-8
(Health Warning: Exit polls are not always accurate)
People's Pulse Bihar Exit Polls 2025 (Total seats: 243 | Majority Mark: 122)
NDA: 133-159
MGB: 75-101
JSP: 0-5
Others: 2-8
(Health Warning: Exit polls are not always accurate)
#ElectionsWithNDTV | Two exit polls (Peoples Pulse and Matrize) project clear majority to NDA in Bihar elections
— NDTV (@ndtv) November 11, 2025
Political Analysts Shubhrastha (@Shubhrastha) and Tehseen Poonawala (@tehseenp) share their views on early trends showing NDA's win in 2025 Bihar polls
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Twelve ministers from Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's cabinet are contesting in this phase -- Bijendra Prasad Yadav (Supaul), Sumit Kumar Singh (Chakai), Mohd Zama Khan (Chainpur), Leshi Singh (Dhamdaha), Krishna Nandan Paswan (Harsidhi), Renu Devi (Bettiah), Neeraj Kumar Bablu (Chhatapur), Nitish Mishra (Jhanjharpur), Prem Kumar (Gaya), Sheila Mandal (Phulparas), Vijay Mandal (Sikti), and Jayant Raj Kushwaha (Amarpur).
Phase 2 of assembly polls in Bihar today saw the highest ever turnout, with over 60% voting till 5.30 pm. Voting is being held on 122 seats, from where a chunk of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's cabinet is seeking re-election.
Voting has ended for the second and final phase of the Bihar assembly election 2025. Those still in line at the polling booths will be allowed to exercise their right.
Bihar is a state seen tricky for pollsters, as the electoral sentiment is weighed upon by an array of factors, including caste arithmetic, law and order and development plank.
In the last two assembly elections, the exit polls failed to project an accurate picture of the final outcome. In 2015, the pollsters underestimated the victory of the Mahagathbandhan, whereas in 2020, they went totally wrong in predicting the National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) loss.
Similar to the last assembly polls, the Bihar assembly polls 2025 also largely witnessed a two-sided contest, pitting the Bharatiya Janata Party and Janata Dal (United)-led NDA against the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-Congress-headed Mahagathbandhan.
Here's a look at what the 2020 exit polls projected, and how the final results emerged:
An average of 11 exit polls projected the Mahagathbandhan as the winner, bagging around 125 out of the total 243 seats. On the other hand, the NDA was shown to be winning around 108 seats — 16 less than the halfway majority-mark.
On the day of results, however, the NDA managed to retain power, winning 125 seats, whereas the Mahagathbandhan fell short of wresting the state, as it could win only 110 constituencies.
Read full report below:
The second and final phase of the Bihar Assembly election 2025 had voting at 122 constituencies. The results of the election will be out on November 14.
The second and final phase of the Bihar Assembly election 2025 had voting at 122 constituencies. The results of the election will be out on November 14.
Welcome to Bihar Election Exit Polls 2025 live coverage!
Voting has entered its final hour in the Hindi heartland state. The polling booth will close at 6 pm today. Those who are standing in the line will be allowed to finish voting.
As per the rules, exit polls can only be released after 6.30 pm.
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