India's exports to the US could see a 6.4% impact due to Trump's tariff measures, with fish products, iron and steel being the worst hit sectors, according to trade think tank Global Trade Research Initiative.
The newly announced Trump-era tariffs could make exports decline by approximately $5.76 billion, from India's 2024 figure of $89.81 billion worth of goods.
Several key product groups are likely to see reductions, with exports of fish and crustaceans potentially falling by 20.2%, iron or steel articles by 18.0%, and diamonds, gold, and related products by 15.3%, according to analysis by GTRI.
Vehicle and parts exports are projected to drop by 12.1%, while electrical, telecom, and electronic products may decline by 12.0%. Other categories such as plastics and articles thereof (-9.4%), carpets (-6.3%), petroleum products (-5.2%), organic chemicals (-2.2%), and machinery (-2.0%) are also expected to be negatively impacted.
While the overall effect of the new tariffs points toward a decline in trade, GTRI said India's competitive position in select product segments may help cushion some of the losses.
"India could see modest export gains in sectors where the US has raised tariffs on competing countries. These include textiles made up (4.2%), apparel (3.2%), ceramic products (3.1%), albuminoidal substances, glues, and enzymes (3%), inorganic chemicals (3%), and pharmaceuticals (2.1%)," it said.
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