India faces a critical challenge and opportunity as global supply chains undergo structural shifts in sectors such as semiconductor chips, rare earths, and magnets, the Finance Ministry said in its July 2025 monthly economic report.
The report stated that while the broader economic outlook remains stable, the medium-term growth path will depend on how well India integrates into these high-value, strategic global networks. The ministry said “India has its task cut out” amid “momentous shifts in global supply chains in the areas of semiconductor chips, rare earths and magnets.”
This is the Finance Ministry's first formal comment on the issue and comes as a shortage of rare earth materials worsens following China's export ban. The disruption has emerged as a serious concern for India's automobile industry, with some firms signalling possible production cuts.
Outlook Steady But Risks Persist
The report said India's economic outlook for FY26 remains stable, but significant risks persist from a slowing global economy, weak exports, and sluggish private investment. While domestic demand and agriculture remain resilient, the ministry said India must proceed cautiously in a complex global environment.
The economy is in a “steady as she goes” mode, according to the ministry.
Despite the broadly stable outlook, the report flagged several downside risks. The US economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025, raising concerns about demand for Indian exports. Ongoing tariff uncertainty in the US could also weigh on trade performance.
Credit growth remains subdued, and private investment has yet to pick up meaningfully. A deflationary trend in wholesale prices may make nominal GDP growth appear weaker than real GDP, the report said.
Domestic Indicators Remain Strong
Despite global headwinds, several domestic indicators remain strong. Tax revenue continues to grow in double digits even after recent rate reductions. Capital expenditure by both the Union and state governments has sustained momentum, supporting the government's fiscal consolidation path.
A strong southwest monsoon, which arrived early and brought above-normal rainfall, has lifted agricultural output and improved prospects for kharif sowing and rural demand.
On inflation, the ministry said core inflation remains low, and headline consumer inflation is well below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target. The RBI projects Q2 FY26 inflation at 3.4%, with the full-year rate expected to stay below its 3.7% forecast.
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