IMD Retains Forecast Of A ‘Normal’ Monsoon In 2023

The Indian Meteorological Department has retained its forecast of a normal monsoon even as it expects 'below normal' rainfall in June.

The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 96% of the long-period average with a model error of +/-4%, officials from the IMD said in its second forecast for the year on Friday. The long-period average for the period 1971-2020 is 87 centimetres.

The IMD also forecasts 'below-normal' rainfall in most areas of northwest India and adjoining west central India, northern parts of the peninsular India and Himalayan foothills. It forecasts 'normal' to 'above-normal' rainfall in most areas of south peninsular India, some areas of east central India and many areas of northeast and extreme north India.

"Our baseline forecast for GDP growth is 6% for the full year with a downside of 50 basis points if El Nino materialises," Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, told BQ Prime. There is also a 50-basis-point upside probability if the capital expenditure cycle kicks off, she added.

The higher probability of El Nino emerging is not expected to have an impact on the economic trajectory, Suvodeep Rakshit, senior economist at Kotak Institutional Equities, told BQ Prime.

The 2023 June rainfall averaged over the country as a whole is most likely to be below 92% of LPA, according to the IMD. The 1971-2020 average for the month is 165.4 mm.

Most parts of the country are set to see below-normal rainfall in June, the department said. Above normal rainfall forecasted in some areas of south peninsular India, northwest India, extreme north India and some pockets of northeast India.

The IMD has forecasted above-normal temperatures over most parts of the country in June. Normal- to below-normal temperatures are expected in some areas of extreme north and some parts of southern peninsular India, it said.