(Bloomberg) -- Canada's hawks may be coming home to roost, but a few doves are standing firm.
Fully one-third of forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, including Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Toronto-Dominion Bank, are sticking to the view that Governor Stephen Poloz will keep the Bank of Canada's key overnight lending rate steady at next week's meeting.
That's in the face of more upbeat messaging from Poloz and his deputies that has traders more or less pricing in a hike next week. Overnight index swaps are assigning an 86 percent probability of an increase at the July 12 meeting. The majority of economists, 16 of 24, also predict the central bank will lift its benchmark rate to 0.75 percent.
The change in consensus has been rapid. A little over a week ago, no economists in the survey expected a rate increase at the July meeting, and a month earlier just two analysts predicted rates would rise at all in 2017.
Sebastien Galy, a macro strategist and Brett Ryan, an economist at Deutsche Bank have been saying since late last year that Poloz would raise rates in October. They don't give much credence to the abrupt shift in sentiment.
“It is a strange world where the market moves from a housing crisis in Canada to a rate hike in a matter of days,” New York-based Galy and Ryan wrote Thursday to clients. The title of their note? “It's absurd -- Why would the Bank of Canada hike so soon?”
| Firm | Rate Hike in July? | |
|---|---|---|
| As of June 30th | As of Morning of July 6th | |
| CIBC | No | No |
| TD | No | No |
| Deutsche Bank | No | No |
| Capital Economics | No | No |
| Standard Chartered | No | No |
| Macquarie | -- | No |
| Rabobank | -- | No |
| Action | -- | No |
| Scotiabank | Yes | Yes |
| BMO | Yes | Yes |
| Royal Bank | Yes | Yes |
| NBF | Yes | Yes |
| Desjardins | Yes | Yes |
| Laurentian | Yes | Yes |
| Citi | Yes | Yes |
| BNP Paribas | Yes | Yes |
| Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy | Yes | Yes |
| Manulife | No | Yes |
| Moody's | No | Yes |
| Oxford | -- | Yes |
| Credit Agricole CIB | -- | Yes |
| Bank of America Merrill Lynch | -- | Yes |
| IHS | -- | Yes |
| 4CAST | -- | Yes |
| Total (Yes) | 9 | 16 |
| Total (No) | 7 | 8 |
Source: Bloomberg News
To contact the reporter on this story: Erik Hertzberg in Ottawa at eschmitzhert@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net, Theophilos Argitis at targitis@bloomberg.net, Chris Fournier
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