Strong Growth, Hawkish RBI And Oil Risks Define India Outlook: Santanu Sengupta

India's economic fundamentals remain robust despite a challenging global backdrop, with growth proving stronger than many peers and even surprising on the upside, according to Goldman Sachs Chief India Economist Santanu Sengupta. While some support from fiscal policy is expected to fade, Sengupta believes a nascent private investment cycle is beginning to take shape. He cautioned that elevated crude oil prices remain a key risk, prompting expectations of up to 75 basis points of further policy tightening by the RBI, with the central bank's recent commentary indicating another rate hike could come as early as December. He also noted that global markets are currently chasing the AI theme, while globally higher inflation could keep interest rates elevated. On the agriculture front, Sengupta said El Niño is unlikely to significantly affect the kharif crop in the near term, although it remains a back-loaded risk.