Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hit Earth? NASA Experts Explain
Recent observations on February 22 have reduced the impact probability to just 0.28%, down from earlier estimates.
Asteroid 2024 YR4: NASA has clarified that the possibility of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in December 2032 is extremely low, showing a 99.7% chance that it will miss the planet. Recent observations on Feb. 22 have reduced the impact probability to just 0.28%, down from earlier estimates. But experts still continue to track the asteroid to refine predictions.
“There is a 99.7% probability that this object will miss Earth in 2032. Those are good odds,” a NASA expert said in a video posted to X.
What Do the Latest Observations Say?
Astronomers resumed tracking asteroid 2024 YR4 after a period of limited visibility due to the full moon. Ground-based telescopes require darker skies to detect faint objects like asteroids. NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) incorporated new data into its impact probability models, initially estimating a 3.1% chance of impact, which was later lowered to 1.5% on Feb. 19. The latest updates now place the probability at just 0.28%.
Also, the likelihood of the asteroid hitting the Moon has slightly increased to 1%. Updated information continues to be available on NASA’s Sentry page.
A NASA expert, on Thursday, addressed concerns in a video posted on X, saying, “The possibility that 2024 YR4 could impact the Earth in 2032 is really remote. We know that this asteroid will come close to Earth, within one and a half times the distance to the Moon. As of today, February 20, 2025, the probability of impact is only 0.3%."
He said that as more tracking data is collected, predictions will improve. "Every time we collect additional tracking data, we can better predict its position in 2032. As the uncertainty….decreases, the impact probability will tend to increase as long as the Earth remains inside that uncertainty region.”
While speculation about asteroid impacts often causes public concern, NASA reassured people that the probability of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth remains extremely low.
But experts assure that Earth is not defenseless, AFP reported. One proven method is crashing a spacecraft into it, like NASA did in 2022. Other ideas include using a strong spacecraft to pull it away, blasting it with ion beams, or even changing its colour to alter its path.
A nuclear explosion is a last resort but could break the asteroid into dangerous pieces. If none of these work, scientists will track its path and prepare for impact, though there’s still a high chance it will miss Earth.
