How Can India Qualify For The Finals Of Asia Cup 2023? Qualification Scenarios Explained

Asia Cup 2023: The run-up to the final of the Asia Cup 2023 tournament is now heating up. India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are now eyeing for a spot in the Asia Cup 2023 finals which will take place on Sunday, September 17.

So far Bangladesh and Pakistan are the only team who has played 2 out of their 3 matches, whereas India and Sri Lanka have played a match each.

India who played Pakistan on the reserve day on Monday thrashed the latter by a massive margin of 228 runs. In doing so, India moved up the table in 1st place pushing Pakistan to third.

Here is how the points table stands after the result of the India vs Pakistan match which took place on Monday, September 11.

Bangladesh have lost both their games against Pakistan and Sri Lanka and has just a game left against India.

Sri Lanka on the other hand still has to face India and Pakistan.

So let's take a look at the qualification scenarios of India and find out the different permutations and combinations for India to reach the finals of the Asia Cup 2023 tournament.

For India to qualify for the finals of the Asia Cup 2023 tournament, they need to win either of their two remaining games to confirm their berth in the finals. India can still qualify even if they end up losing their remaining matches.

Let's take a look at different permutations to see how India can qualify for the finals

Scenario 1: India wins against Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, then India will move to the top of the table with six points and will qualify for the finals.

Explanation: This is a straightforward scenario where the results of the other matches will have no impact on India's qualification scenario.

Scenario 2: India wins against Pakistan and Sri Lanka but ends up losing against Bangladesh, then India can still qualify for the finals irrespective of the results of the remaining matches.

Explanation: As per scenario 2, the only other match of the Super 4 stage that will be remaining is the Pakistan-Sri Lanka match which will take place on Thursday, September 14. This match will take place prior to the India-Bangladesh game on Friday. The winner of the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka game will move to four points (level with India) and the losing team will be eliminated with 2 points against its name. Hence, even if India ends up losing against Bangladesh they will still qualify for the finals.

If Pakistan wins against Sri Lanka

If Sri Lanka wins against Pakistan

Scenario 3: If India wins against Pakistan and Bangladesh but ends up losing against Sri Lanka, then India can still qualify for the finals considering the results of the remaining matches go in their favour.

Explanation: As per this scenario, India will move to four points in three games, and the result of the SL-PAK game before the IND-BAN game will decide whether or not India will progress to the finals. Before the Sri Lanka-Pakistan match, SL will be on 4 points (win against BAN and IND) and Pakistan will be on 2 points (win against BAN).

If Sri Lanka wins then they will move to 6 points and Pakistan will remain on 2 points, which means India will end up qualifying for the finals with four points against its name.

Now, if Pakistan wins then all three teams (SL, PAK & IND) will move level with 4 points against their name. Here, the net run-rate will decide which team progresses to the finals and if India has a better run-rate than either of Sri Lanka or Pakistan then India will qualify for the finals.

Scenario 4: India wins against Pakistan but ends up losing against Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, then India can still qualify for the finals considering the results of the remaining matches going in their favour.

Explanation: In this scenario, the mathematical chances of India qualifying will be lesser but not impossible. Here again, the overall net run rate and the result of the Pakistan-Sri Lanka match will decide India's qualification chances.

If Sri Lanka wins then India can still qualify if they ensure that their defeat against Bangladesh in the last game is a narrow one. This will mean India will have a better net run rate than that of Bangladesh and Pakistan and hence will qualify for the finals.