Can Australia Qualify For The Semi-Finals If They Lose Against Afghanistan? CWC 2023 Qualification Scenario

ICC World Cup 2023: Before the Australia vs Afghanistan match which began at 2 PM on Tuesday, many would have predicted a comfortable win for the Aussies and a place in the semi-finals of the ODI World Cup. Australia also had a chance to overtake South Africa and move to second place in the points table considering the margin of victory would have led to a jump in their NRR by more than 0.452.

But as things stand, Australia looks to be heading to a defeat at the hands of Afghanistan after recording five consecutive wins.

If Australia lose against Afghanistan then they will remain rooted on 10 points, the same as of Afghanistan who will move level on points with them. A win for Afghanistan would also eliminate the Netherlands from the race for the semis, which means only two teams out of the four namely Australia, Afghanistan, New Zealand and Pakistan can join India and South Africa in the semi-finals. And with only one match remaining for each of these four teams, it will be a do-or-die situation as far as top 4 qualification is concerned.

Here are the remaining fixtures which can decide the fate of semi-final qualification

• New Zealand vs Sri Lanka on Thursday, November 9

• South Africa vs Afghanistan on Friday, November 10

• Australia vs Bangladesh on Saturday, November 11

• England vs Pakistan on Saturday, November 11

But will the loss against Afghanistan hamper their qualification chances or can Australia still sneak into the semi-finals? Let's look at the scenarios.

A win against Bangladesh on Saturday will guarantee Australia a spot in the semi-finals of the ICC World Cup 2023, as they will move to 12 points on the table with only Afghanistan who can match the same points tally.

Australia can still qualify for the semi-finals even if they end up losing their game against Bangladesh, considering the results of other matches go in their favor or the margin of victory does not hamper their net run rate considerably.

For Australia to qualify despite losing to Bangladesh, they need either of the following to happen -

• Afghanistan to lose against South Africa, which means the former will remain level on points with Australia but lower in table due to an inferior net run rate.

• New Zealand to lose against Sri Lanka, which means New Zealand will remain rooted on eight points.

• New Zealand to win against Sri Lanka but with a lower margin of victory, which means the former will remain level on points with Australia but lower in table due to an inferior net run rate.

• Pakistan to lose against England, which means Pakistan will remain rooted on eight points.

• Pakistan to win against England but with a lower margin of victory, which means the former will remain level on points with Australia but lower in table due to an inferior net run rate.

Looking at the scenarios above, Australia will still be placed in a better position as compared to any of its three competitors for a place in the all important sem-finals of the ICC World Cup 2023.