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KRChoksey Report
Indian Pharma Market is expected to grow largely from non-Covid-19 products' (chronic/sub chronic and acute therapy products') sales, as Covid-19 cases receded during Q2 FY22.
In September 2021, the IPM grew at a normalised pace of 12.4% YoY, driven by recovery in acute products' sales. The acute segment grew at 17.6% YoY while chronic segment improved at 7.3% YoY for September 2021. IPM had increased at a pace of 17.7% YoY in August 2021, preceded by 13.7% YoY growth in July 2021.
In September 2021, higher demand was witnessed for acute therapy products, including respiratory (45.8% YoY) and analgesics (28.1% YoY) in IPM. Similar trend was visible in the respective sub-segments of IPM in July 2021 (anti-infectives growing at 30.2% YoY, analgesic at 24.1% YoY, and respiratory at 22.8% YoY) and August 2021 (respiratory growing at 38.2% YoY, analgesics at 32.4% YoY, and anti-infectives at 29.2% YoY), as well.
On the other hand, pandemic induced lower footfalls to clinics and rising competitive pressures in the generics business are expected to impact the U.S. sales growth. Nevertheless, specialty products' sales can offset the unfavorable impact in the U.S. market, somewhat.
For Q2 FY22E, we expect our coverage universe to post 3.8% YoY (+0.0% QoQ) growth in sales. Sun Pharma (+10.5% YoY), Dr. Reddy's (+7.0% YoY), Lupin (+5.3% YoY) and Cipla (5.0% YoY) are expected to post highest growth in revenue in Q2 FY22E.
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