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ICICI Direct Report
Near normal economic activity, healthy retail sales (Q1 FY23 averaging at ~92% of pre-Covid levels), robust demand in passenger vehicle segment amid new launches in the sports utility vehicle domain, cut in excise duty on fuels (Rs 8/litre on petrol, Rs 6/litre on diesel) in May 2022 and plummeting key raw material prices (mainly metals) towards the fag end of the quarter post their peak in April-May 2022 were the key highlights for Q1 FY23E.
Total industry volumes in Q1 FY23 are expected to jump up ~10% QoQ led by the robust performance by the industry leader in the two-wheeler space with rest of the categories (passenger vehicle, three-wheeler, commercial vehicle) witnessing de-growth QoQ.
Building in conservative estimates and quarterly lag of raw material costs impact, we build in ~50 bps gross margin decline for our coverage companies in Q1 FY23E.
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