‘Jahan hamaara charan padaa nahi, wahan kya hopayega?” Where we have not set our foot, what can happen there?” Prime MinisterNarendra Modi asserted recently at the Vikas Utsav rally in Balasore in northOdisha. This was his third visit to Odisha in the past four months. He hadpreviously visited Paradip port and Bargarh in western Odisha.
The Balasore rally was about giving an account of histwo years' achievements, calling upon people to opt for the BJP if they wantedprosperity. Balasore had a substantial support base for the BJP where the BijuJanata Dal (BJD) had strengthened its hold recently.
The BJP had planned seven such rallies in differentparts of the state in the next few days to convey the Modi regime'sachievements. Incidentally, the one in Rourkela, scheduled for June 6, gotembroiled in a controversy as the local BJP MLA and business magnet Dilip Rayboycotted it. His grouse was that despite his efforts, the BJP-ruled Centre hadnot upgraded the status of a hospital in Rourkela.
Fluid Situation
In fact, the Rourkela rally episode exemplifies theBJP's fluidity in Odisha. Competing factional leaders, absence of a distinctsocial base, a perception of the Centre's neglect of Odisha and the BJP'sambivalent attitude towards the Naveen Patnaik government seriously constrainedits political strategy of what party cadres call “Mission Odisha”, after thestunning electoral victory in Assam.
Ever since the BJP leadership chose Dharmendra Pradhanto get elected to the Rajya Sabha from Bihar in 2012 it became clear that hehad been entrusted to lead the BJP drive in Odisha.
As petroleum minister in the Modi cabinet Pradhan has been one of the most active and visible ministers spearheading one of Modi's much-publicised Ujjwala programme. But he is not seen as a mass leader even though he was elected as an MLA in 2000 and an MP in 2004. He is clearly being projected as the BJP's Odisha chief ministerial candidate.
Inner-Party Factionalism
There have been frequent changes in the Odisha BJP's presidentship.The change from the last incumbent, Kanak Bardhan Singhdeo, exposed the depthof the factional divide. There are many senior state BJP leaders who seemside-lined.
Two former BJD stalwarts, Bijay Mohapatra and Dilip Ray, who were thrownout by Naveen Patnaik after he assumed charge as CM, are now in the BJP. Thetwo seasoned leaders have their firm popular bases in coastal and western Odisha.The choice of the current party president Basanta Panda from western Odisha wasseen as a weak compromise to aid Pradhan's hold over the BJP state unit. Thusthe factions within the BJP make it difficult to function as a coherentorganisation.
Besides, the BJP has failed to make any headway onbuilding a social base of its own. Initially, it focused on mobilising the peopleof tribal regions and the farming castes to show that it was different from theCongress and the BJD which are led by Odisha's two leading castes, Karans orKayasthas (surnames Patnaik, Mohanty etc) and Brahmins (Mishra, Satpathy etc). Theparty sought to convey this message by choosing Jual Oraon, Manmohan Samal andPradhan who belong to the farmer caste.
BJD's Growing Clout
The BJP expanded its support base across Odisha whenit shared power with the BJD during 2000-2009. In the wake of theanti-Christian riots in Kandhamal, Naveen Patnaik dissolved the alliance and contestedthe 2009 elections on its own. While the BJD went from strength to strength,the BJP saw a progressive decline, although the 2014 assembly elections, heldalong with the Lok Sabha polls, saw the party winning 10 seats. While Odishadefied the Modi wave in the 2014 elections, the BJP's vote share rose to 21.05percent.
In his recent speeches Modi has avoided making harshattacks on the Naveen Patnaik regime. BJP President Amit Shah too disappointed hisOdisha party leaders by refraining from criticising the BJD government. It wasseen as placating Naveen Patnaik to seek his support in the Rajya Sabha on GSTand other issues. On his part, Patnaik has absented himself from attendingNitish Kumar and Mamata Banerjee's swearing-in ceremonies. These moves havehelped Naveen soften the BJP opposition. At the same time, the CBI was seen asgoing slow against BJD politicians allegedly involved in the Saradha chit fundand mining scandals.
Challenges for BJP in Odisha
- Union MinisterDharmendra Pradhan is yet to emerge as an alternative to Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik.
- Former BJD stalwarts likeBijay Mohapatra and Dilip Ray, who are now with the BJP, have been side-lined.
- BJP has not been able to consolidate its vote base, be it tribals or those belonging to the farming community.
- Muted attacks on Naveen Patnaik government by BJP leaders hint at an “understanding” with the BJD, which might not bode well for the former.
- By failing to raise issues closer to the people, BJP has been unable to fill the opposition space left by a weakened Congress.
BJP's Prospects Ahead
The Modi regime's economic strategy, like hispredecessor's, fully corresponds to Naveen's determined bid to developmining-based industries in Odisha. The BJD government has outdone the UPA's orthe Modi-led BJP's numerous welfare schemes. Therefore, BJP had very little tooffer by way of economic policies to attract the people of Odisha. In fact, therewere serious complaints against the Centre for drastically reducing droughtrelief allocation, delay in railway construction projects and not including the Odisha coast in the economic corridor, reducing central allocations for welfareschemes and so on.
In Odisha, the BJP could fill some opposition space vacated by the Congress which failed to overcome factionalism and upper caste domination or offer an alternative development strategy. But the BJP is yet to set itself on an Odisha-specific revival path. So both seem to make more space available for the BJD.
The tragedy is that the BJD has continued as acare-giver government while people needing care continue to grow. As a strongpromoter of extractive capitalist economy with high magnitude of poverty andincreasing inequalities it will soon reach its limits.
(The writer is a former Professor of Political Science, University of Delhi)
Also read:
Egg Fight in Odisha: 75 Percent of the State Is Apparently Poor
Essential Business Intelligence, Continuous LIVE TV, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
