The brokerage estimates the proportion of new stores (less than six months old) to increase to ~39% in Q4 FY25E from ~37% in Q3 FY25 for Blinkit and to ~39% in Q4 FY25E from ~21% in Q3 FY25 for Instamart. We believe this is likely to adversely impact profitability in Q4 FY25E. Therefore, we estimate adjusted Ebitda margin (% of gross order value) in quick commerce business to decline by 127 bps QoQ in Blinkit and 301 bps QoQ in Instamart. Henceforth, profitability should improve as stores scale up.
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ICICI Securities Report
Zomato -
We estimate Zomato Ltd.'s food delivery gross order value to remain flattish QoQ, grow 17.0% YoY, with an adjusted Ebitda margin (% of GOV) of 4.3%. Blinkit's GOV to grow by 19.8% QoQ/132.1% YoY, while its adjusted Ebitda margin (% of GOV) to decline by 127 bps QoQ.
Additionally, Hyperpure's business (B2B) adjusted revenue is estimated to grow by 22% QoQ/114.4% YoY in Q4 FY25. Overall, we estimate adjusted revenue growth of 10.8% QoQ/64.3% YoY and adj. Ebitda margin of ~1.9%, as a proportion of adj. revenue (versus 5%/5% in Q3 FY25/Q4 FY24).
We estimate adj. Ebitda of Rs 1.2 billion in Q4 FY25 (versus Rs 2.9 billion/Rs 1.9 billion in Q3 FY25/Q4 FY24). We estimate consolidated PAT to dip to -Rs 771 million.
Swiggy -
We estimate Swiggy Ltd.'s food delivery GOV to decline 1.5% QoQ, grow 17.3% YoY, with an adjusted Ebitda margin (% of GOV) of 2.6%. Instamart's GOV to grow by 25.1% QoQ/110.4% YoY, while its adjusted Ebitda margin (% of GOV) to decline by 301bps QoQ. Additionally, Q4 FY25E supply chain and distribution revenue is estimated to grow by 5%/40.5% QoQ/YoY.
Overall, we estimate adj. revenue growth of 4.5% QoQ/36.3% YoY and adj. Ebitda margin of -17.4%, as a proportion of adj. revenue (versus -11.5%/-11.1% in Q3 FY25/Q4 FY24). We estimate adj. Ebitda of -Rs 7.7 billion in Q4 FY25 (versus - Rs 4.9 billion/-Rs 3.6 billion in Q3 FY25/Q4 FY24).
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