A host of global and domestic brokerages have rolled out fresh views on Dr Agarwal's Health, ONGC, IndiGo, Adani Ports, HDFC Bank and several sectors including oil & gas, pharma and financials, as analysts assess the impact of rising energy prices, policy support and structural growth trends.
Avendus Spark on Dr Agarwal's Health
- Initiate Buy with TP of Rs 495
- A clear vision for growth
- Well positioned to benefit from strong demand and consolidation in the eye care market
- Network expansion to drive volume and revenue growth
- Mature cluster growth seen at ~12% CAGR over FY26–28 driven by volumes and premiumisation
- Attractive unit economics and disciplined acquisition strategy to support RoCE improvement
- EBITDA margin expected to remain broadly stable at ~21% by FY28
MS on India Energy & Chemicals
- ONGC – Maintain Overweight; Hike TP to Rs 363 from Rs 299
- Oil India – Maintain Overweight; Hike TP to Rs 563 from Rs 455
- GAIL – Downgrade to Equal-weight; Cut TP to Rs 150 from Rs 236
- Petronet LNG – Downgrade to Equal-weight; Cut TP to Rs 276 from Rs 342
- LNG infrastructure damage in Qatar shifts market from glut to balanced
- Higher gas prices likely to push demand towards alternative fuels like coal and diesel
- Upstream oil, refiners and fertilisers expected to benefit
- Gas demand growth seen slowing; hence downgrades on GAIL and Petronet
- More constructive on upstream players with integrated refining
MS on Tata Chemicals
Downgrade to Underweight; Cut TP to Rs 566 from Rs 1,082
Double downgrade driven by higher energy costs and downside demand risks
GS on IndiGo
- Maintain Buy; Cut TP to Rs 5,200 from Rs 6,000
- Supply constraints likely to emerge over the next few quarters
- Near-term focus on earnings sensitivity to fuel prices and traffic disruption
- Debate likely to shift to cost control and balance sheet strength
- Cut estimates for FY26–FY28 due to higher fuel costs and weak Middle East traffic
- IndiGo seen as well positioned in consolidation and capital preservation themes
HSBC on HDFC Bank
- Maintain Buy; Cut TP to Rs 990 from Rs 1,070
- Chairman resignation likely due to differences in opinion rather than governance concerns
- However, event may lead to valuation multiple compression
- Improvement in operating performance needed to offset this
Citi on Financials
- CGSMFI 2.0 scheme seen as a liquidity boost for small and medium MFIs
- 70–80% sovereign guarantee reduces expected losses and capital consumption
- Rs 20,000 crore envelope equals over 20% of NBFC-MFI borrowings
- Mandatory allocation norms help address funding gaps
- For listed MFIs, Rs 300 crore per entity cap limits direct benefit
- Overall sector-positive; potential Rs 8,000 crore incremental borrowings
Citi on Oil & Gas
Gas vs oil value chains showing diverging disruption trends
Damage to Qatari LNG facility may lead to prolonged gas supply tightness
Expect JKM LNG prices at $27/mmbtu in Q2CY26, moderating later
Extended LNG tightness negative for Petronet; GAIL relatively better placed
Brent could remain elevated at $110–120/bbl near term before easing to $70–80
OMCs seen near peak stress with valuations corrected
MS on Pharma (GLP-1 Theme)
- Generic semaglutide launch to transform GLP-1 market into mass segment
- Entry of ~40 players leading to 70–80% price drop
- Market could reach Rs 9,000 crore by FY30
- Adds 1–2% incremental growth to Indian pharma market
- Sun Pharma and Dr Reddy best placed to gain share
- Cipla's tirzepatide ramp could also surprise positively
- Margins likely to remain low initially due to competitive intensity
Investec on Adani Ports
- Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 1,850
- Vizhinjam port capacity to expand over 3x to 5.7 million TEUs by Dec-2028
- Capex of over Rs 10,000 crore planned
- Aims to capture a larger share of India's transshipment volumes
- MoU signed with BPCL for LNG bunkering services
- Expansion underway across multiple ports including Mundra, Dhamra and Colombo
- Strong execution track record remains a key positive
MS on Oil & Gas (OMCs)
- Indian fuel retailers facing ~$1.5 billion monthly losses at $107/bbl Brent
- Retailers have balance sheet strength to absorb losses for about 45 days
- Government intervention via excise cuts or fuel price hikes likely after elections
- Each month of elevated crude could reduce FY27 book value by 3–5%
- Partial price hikes already implemented in industrial fuel segments
CLSA on ASK Automotive
- Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 630; implies ~54% upside
- Honda capacity expansion by 28% to 8 million units is a key tailwind
- ASK derives ~35% revenue from Honda
- Higher content per vehicle in EVs compared to ICE provides structural growth
- Well positioned for next growth cycle
Morgan Stanley on India Financials
- Government introduces credit guarantee scheme for MFIs effective March 20
- Applies to loans extended to NBFC-MFIs for onward lending
- Total guarantee envelope of Rs 20,000 crore
- Interest and loan size caps defined
- Aims to improve credit flow and support smaller MFIs
Morgan Stanley on Grasim Industries
- Paints business targeting Rs 10,000 crore revenue in three years
- Strong contractor ecosystem and brand recall as key moat
- B2B e-commerce platform targeting inefficiencies in building materials procurement
- EBITDA break-even expected by FY27
- Cellulose and chemicals segments focusing on higher value products
- Near-term margins impacted by cost inflation
CLSA on Oil & Gas Sector
- Opening of Strait of Hormuz could ease crude and LNG prices
- However, post-war supply-demand dynamics likely to remain tight
- Upstream players like ONGC, Oil India and Reliance better placed than OMCs
- Gas companies like GAIL and Petronet may also benefit from recovery
JPMorgan on GLP-1 (India Impact)
- GLP-1 drugs not expected to materially disrupt FMCG demand in near term
- Less than 1% revenue impact estimated over FY28–30
- Could influence long-term consumption patterns toward healthier products
- Companies like Nestle, Britannia and QSR chains may see gradual shifts
CLSA on UltraTech Cement
- Maintain high conviction Outperform
- Rising crude prices increase cost inflation risk
- Estimate 4–5% cement price hikes for $40/tonne rise in petcoke
- Packaging costs also pose a risk
- Near-term earnings may face pressure, but companies may retain price hikes over time
- Stock seen at trough valuations
Morgan Stanley on Food Delivery
- Platform fees increased by 19–20% in multiple cities
- Seen as positive for profitability and long-term growth
- Strong cash generation from food delivery supporting investments in quick commerce
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