A host of global and domestic brokerages have rolled out fresh views on Coal India, IndiGo, Cipla, Godrej Properties, ASK Automotive and several other companies as analysts assess the impact of energy market volatility, leadership changes, regulatory developments and sector-specific growth trends.
Jefferies on Coal India
Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 485 from Rs 450
Improving outlook and reasonable valuations
After a 21% EPS decline over FY24–26, expect earnings trajectory to improve with ~9% CAGR over FY26–28
Recovery in power demand amid expectations of intense summer and weak rains should boost volumes
Higher global coal prices could lift e-auction prices
Despite rising captive production, Coal India has broadly retained its ~60% share in India's coal demand
MS on Cipla
Maintain Underweight with TP of Rs 1,211
Recall of Lanreotide injection batches
Recall follows OAI classification at Pharmathen's Radopi facility
May delay product resupply to the US market
Lanreotide among Cipla's top three US products
Prolonged disruption may lead to market share loss and downside risk to FY27–FY28 earnings
Macquarie on NBFCs
RBI considering leadership transition norms similar to banks
Move could end regulatory arbitrage between banks and NBFCs
Private banks have a 15-year cap for executive directors and an age cap of 70 years
ED compensation also requires RBI approval
NBFCs currently do not require such approvals and their boards decide tenure and compensation
Shriram Finance followed by Bajaj Finance likely to be most impacted and may need to plan leadership transitions
Macquarie on Quick Commerce
Growth momentum slowing
Sequential growth moderated from ~25% in H1 to about 5–10% in Q4FY26
Rising competitive intensity across micro-markets
Brokerage sees downside risk to consensus expectations
Jefferies on IndiGo
Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 6,140
CEO exit; focus on stability
Announced surprise resignation of CEO Pieter Elbers, with co-founder Rahul Bhatia assuming interim charge
Under Elbers, IndiGo scaled up international operations, initiated wide-body flying and launched new customer propositions
Historically leadership transitions have been smooth with founder oversight ensuring continuity
Key near-term watchpoints include operational stability amid Middle East and crude turbulence, clarity on summer schedules and CEO succession
MS on India Energy
Limited investments in the oil supply chain, including storage, are leading to supply disruptions
Disruptions could accelerate in the coming weeks
Energy security concerns following the oil shock could lead to re-rating of energy stocks
State-owned enterprises likely to benefit
Reliance Industries, Indian Oil, Petronet LNG and HPCL seen emerging stronger after the energy supply shock
Jefferies on Banks
Assessing banks' exposure to aviation amid Middle East conflict
Banks have lent about Rs 50,000 crore to airlines, roughly 0.2% of total credit mix
Majority exposure to Air India, followed by IndiGo, SpiceJet and Akasa
Airline debt largely driven by aircraft lease liabilities
Rising oil prices and operational disruptions could lead airlines to seek government support or higher working capital loans
Restructuring risk appears limited
Indian Bank, Bank of Baroda, SBI and Yes Bank have relatively higher exposure
CLSA on Banks
Blue-chip banks on fire sale; sees 25%+ returns for HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank
Despite improving outlook, both stocks are down 5–15% YTD
Believes investor concerns around HDFC Bank's LDR are likely to fade as RBI is not focused on this metric
Expects HDFC Bank's core PPOP to grow at ~18% CAGR over FY26–28 versus ~12% over FY24–26
For ICICI Bank, pickup in retail loan growth from current ~7% YoY could drive overall loan growth
Strong net slippage ratios in recent quarters could lead to lower credit costs and potential re-rating
CLSA on ASK Automotive
Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 630
Growth intact with attractive valuation
Strong growth and high capital efficiency at about 17x earnings
Channel checks suggest government could explore alternatives to ABS
Even if ABS mandate continues, impact on ASK's topline estimated at just ~4%
UBS on Bajaj Auto
Maintain Sell with TP of Rs 9,015
Maharashtra accounts for ~17% of Bajaj's domestic ICE three-wheelers and ~15% of total three-wheelers
ICE three-wheelers command margins above 30%, increasing the profitability impact
Bajaj most exposed with ~87% market share in the Maharashtra ICE 3W industry
HSBC Global Strategy
Max overweight equities
Recent price action suggests peak fear with positioning indicators resembling pandemic-type extremes
Strategy now max overweight equities and fading recent moves
Prefer Asia and Europe the most, US the least
Also looking at other asset classes that may have overshot, as risk-on view remains intact
Jefferies on Godrej Properties
Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 2,700
Promoters purchased a 3.5% stake from the market, reflecting confidence in long-term residential demand
Management focused on scaling up construction
Operating cash flow surplus expected to rise significantly in FY27
Reported RoE target of 20% remains on track.
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